Μετεξέλιξη της κοινωνικής ασφάλισης στην Ελλάδα: κριτήρια αποτελεσματικότητας για την περίπτωση της υποχρεωτικής εφεδρείας

Abstract

This thesis was designed in order to examine the measure of employment reduction in the general government by at least 150,000, in the period 2012 – 2016. The aim of this thesis is to detect and assess the effects of this measure on the civil servants pension body property, on the public finance, in the medium term, as well as on the existence and survival of social security in an environment of economic recession, in Greece. The examination of the measure was based on an actuarial study which is totally based on the laws and state official data, with the calculation date of 12/2012. For its needs, a new data archive was created, with approximately 120,000 civil servants, from the process of two different databases, as well as the proper case study. The Swiss EVK 2000 actuarial tables were used, according to the effective provisions on civil servants’ pension, in relation to the detailed charter of civil servants on active service on 2.11.2012, and 3.8% technical interest rate, based on the expected returns of the reserves. For the calculation, the Projected Unit Credit Method (PUC) was selected and used, also known as accrued benefits method. According to the Projected Unit Credit Method, the current salary of the insured person is projected on his/her retirement date. In order to examine the relationship of the civil servant policy and the development, the 2.35 fiscal multiplier was used, and the percentage of the general government income as a GDP percentage was considered 44.7%, according to the European Commission, for 2012. Based on the aforementioned admissions, the result of the actuarial study proved that the effects of the employment reduction in the general government are mainly detected on the GDP – public income, the unemployment – dismissals, and the Social Security. More specifically, the measure directly endangers the sustainability of the Social Security Organizations, due to the particularly large decrease in their income from insurance contributions, and due to the 1.1% increase of the unemployment rate, which results in a decrease in the expenditures of the State Budget. The financial result is that it decreases the public expenditures by 6,337.6 m. €, but it burdens the GDP with an amount of approximately -13,619.2 m. €. This result can also be translated into a significant decrease in the direct income of the State, without calculating any other effects, for example on health, unemployment etc. The final financial result of the measure as public income is approximately 249.8 m. €, which cannot compensate the socio-economic cost of unemployment/dismissal in a recession and unemployment environment, while, at the same time, the sustainability of the Social Security Organizations is endangered. The study proves that the measure is applied without the necessary planning for the expected result on the GDP, the public income, the unemployment through dismissals, and the Social Security. In addition, these measures are in direct contrast to the IMF and OECD proposals on economy and pensions